Having been elected as US President, Trump has fulfilled his promise of withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change. What is Trump’s objective for doing so? Can China take advantage of the situation and exert greater influence on international environmental protection efforts?
Simon Shen: China yet to become new global environment champion
US President Donald Trump has kept his election promise and withdrawn from the Paris Agreement. Simon Shen, International Relations Scholar and Director of the Global Studies Programme at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, believes that, as well as complementing his election slogan of putting “America First”, Trump sees the Paris Agreement as being detrimental to American workers. Trump has previously said that the agreement is unfair to the US, and the withdrawal may pave the way for its future revision that is more favourable to the US or for signing an entirely new agreement.
Rejoining the Paris Agreement
Whether the US will rejoin the Paris Agreement at a later date will depend on whether there is an improvement in the pay and condition of US workers once the US has withdrawn. If there is no such improvement and the environment keeps deteriorating, the perceived contradiction between the Paris Agreement and the interests of US workers will disappear, and it is likely that the next US President will rejoin the agreement as a result of pressure from the American electorate and the international community.
After President Trump withdrew from the agreement, more than a thousand government and business leaders in the US signed the “We Are Still In” statement, pledging to continue supporting climate action to meet the Paris Agreement. Despite this commitment, Shen emphasizes that successful implementation of the Paris Agreement depends in large part on government regulation.
Following the US’s withdrawal from the agreement, it has been said that the EU and China should take the opportunity to lead its implementation and expand their international influence in the process. Shen pointed out, however, that the EU is not a single national entity, and there is significant disparity in the development levels of member countries. This makes reaching a consensus on environmental issues that affect economic development a major challenge for the EU.
China’s high carbon emissions are a hindrance
The question, then, is whether China can exert influence. Shen stated that China lacks experience in solving environmental problems, and its carbon emissions are still at a high level. Although the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has created a vacuum, China may not be able to get a bigger say in this matter. As Shen put it, “Seeking greater flexibility under the agreement to develop its industry, China has claimed to be a developing country, and it is doubtful that the international community would see China as a suitable new champion of the agreement”. But he also stressed that once China’s green economy matures, it would possess the credentials needed to replace the US in this role.
Zong Yongqiang: Behind environmental protection is the fight for oil
Zong Yongqiang, Climate Change Expert and Head of Earth Sciences at the University of Hong Kong, believes that oil is the real factor behind the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: “There is a political game being played with oil. Countries around the world have been influenced by oil politics for a long time, and the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement is no different.”
The US is the world’s most developed country as well as the largest consumer of oil. It wants to be a political, economic and military superpower, which means it has to control the supply of oil.
Safeguarding the interests of the oil industry elite
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement brought “oil hegemony” back to the forefront of US politics. To promote implementation of the agreement, countries have accelerated research on and applications of renewable energy, with the ultimate aim of replacing oil, but this is the last thing that the US elite in oil-related industries want to see. As Zong said, “The Paris Agreement forces governments to increase their efforts to support new energy applications, but this may impair the significant interests of a small number of people who comprise the US energy elite. It is their important interests that the Trump government is committed to protecting.”
After the US announced its withdrawal from the agreement, China immediately reiterated its commitment to the Paris deal and released a joint statement with the EU pledging to strengthen cooperation on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Zong believes that China, which is the biggest carbon emitter, will step up its development of renewable energy and rid itself of its reliance on coal and electricity. He pointed out that, “As a result of state subsidies and support, China has become the largest producer of solar panels, which are not only shipped overseas but also widely used within China. Wind power is also growing rapidly in China.”
China: Great potential for developing new energy sources
After studying the situation in several Chinese townships, Zong was impressed by the use of solar energy: “In new buildings or reconstructed towns, many families and businesses install solar power systems. The grid system can support feeding back into the grid, allowing excess electricity from solar energy to be sold to the power company at a reasonable price.” Zong feels that the Chinese government’s action model of leading by example, as well as its accelerated decommissioning of heavily polluting energy producers, means renewable energy has enormous potential in China. Even the US and European countries have failed to achieve the application of solar energy systems in towns and villages mentioned above.
As it stands, the US, which is responsible for about 15% of the world’s carbon emissions, has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, which has undoubtedly made it more difficult for the rest of the world to reach the goals set out in the deal (including keeping the increase in global average temperatures to well below 2°C). But not having the US on board is not the end of the world. To overcome oil hegemony, the EU and China must step up research on new energy sources and continue to lower renewable energy production costs, as well as encourage other emerging economies to develop green energy. If the general public and companies in the US can maintain the pace of reductions in carbon emissions, it will be possible for them to mitigate the absence of the US government from climate change efforts.
